Ian Duncan

CURRENT POSITION

Partner of Lotter Actuarial Partners Inc.

Education

B.A. (Mathematics) Natal University (1972)
B. Phil. (Economics) Balliol College, Oxford, (1976)

Professional Affiliations

Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries (London) (1982)
Fellow of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (1984)
Fellow, Life Office Management Institute (1985)
Fellow, Society of Actuaries (2002)
Member of the American Academy of Actuaries (1992)

Experience

Summary: Twenty-five years of experience in healthcare and insurance product design, management, financing, pricing, delivery and reserving, for life, health, and disability insurers and reinsurers. Consulting practice development and executive management of a start-up provider of services to managed health insurers. Business, partnership and service contracting development between insurers, reinsurers and service providers.

Professional and Business History

Partner,: Lotter Actuarial Partners Inc. (2002 - present) Primary practice in the area of Population Risk Management (identification, management, pricing and underwriting of health insurance risks). Clients include health insurers, Disease Management companies and large employers.

Landacorp, Inc.: Consulting and Analytics Group, (formerly Capitated Disease Management Services Inc.). General Manager (2000 - 2002).
General Manager of the Consulting and Analytics Group of Landacorp, Inc., a Software and Consulting company focusing on data warehousing, data mining, targeting and prediction for the health insurance industry. Developed Landacorp’s first integrated predictive modeling and care management product with guaranteed savings outcomes provided through reinsurance (possibly first of its kind in U.S.). Large customers include United Healthcare, HealthNet of Arizona, Lifeguard and AARP.

PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP: Director, Management Consulting Services (1996-2000) and Actuarial Consulting Services (1991-6).
Between 1996 and 1999, led the transition of AARP’s health insurance businesses (Medicare Supplement and Long-term Care) from Prudential Healthcare to United Healthcare and Metropolitan Life, including vendor identification, program design, contracting and pricing. Developed national Medicare Risk network of providers for the Association (subsequently shelved). Sold and implemented enterprise-wide underwriting systems for CIGNA healthcare and Prudential healthcare. Designed and built marketing illustration software for Retiree Medical and Integrated Disability providers (BCBS Association and Metropolitan Life Disability). Led projects to implement new financial planning and forecasting software and processes for insurers. Consulted to large employers and managed care companies in the areas of pricing, product development and reserving, strategic planning and re-engineering of services.

Other clients include Aetna Life & Casualty, Federal Crop Insurance Program, CIGNA HealthCare, Prudential Insurance, Zurich Centre Re and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care.

Aetna Life and Casualty (1980-1991): Managing Director of the Aetna Benefits Consulting Group (1989-1991), focusing on healthcare data management and value-added consulting to Aetna’s large customers.
Group Life Insurance Product Manager (1987-1989).

Commercial Union Assurance Co. (London): Actuarial trainee (1976-1980)
International Insurance Department (1979-1980)

Industry Groups

Society of Actuaries Non-traditional marketing section and Smaller Consulting Firms section councils.
Editor: "The Independent Consultant" (newsletter for consulting actuaries)
Research Associate, Harvard Healthcare Delivery Program, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
Founding Member, National Managed Workers Compensation Institute.
Member, Quality Improvement and Research Committee, Disease Management Association of America.

Publications

“The Group Universal Life Product": Record, Society of Actuaries, 1988.
“The role of an employer-sponsored Savings Plan in post-retirement planning”: ABC Research Bulletin, 1989.
"Employer HMO Contribution Strategies": ABC Research Bulletin, 1990.
"Curbing Health Plan Costs": Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance, Autumn, 1992.
"Benchmarking and Cost Control" in Janet R. Douglas: Managing Workers' Compensation. John Wiley, 1994.
“Measuring the Total Cost of Lost Time” (with Jonathon Crane, Ph. D.) in Janet R. Douglas: Managing Workers’ Compensation. John Wiley, 1996.
“Benchmarking Lost-Time Costs”: Washington Business Group on Health Conference, October 1997.
“Sales Force Automation in the Health Insurance Industry” On Health, Spring 1998.
“Designing and Underwriting Health Insurance Products for Developing Countries. Are there any lessons from developed countries?” Actuarial Society of India, Conference of Actuaries Proceedings, February 1999.
“Internet Marketing for Insurance” Panel Discussion, Society of Actuaries, Spring meeting, 1999.
“Outlook for using the Internet for insurance marketing” Panel discussion, SOA, Spring meeting 2002.
“Predictive modeling for health plans” Panel Discussion, SOA Spring Meeting 2002.
“Population Risk Management”, Health Section News, Society of Actuaries. June, 2002.
“Population-Based Risk Management: An Innovative Approach to Identifying and Managing High-Risk Health Plan Enrollees” American Risk and Insurance Association annual meeting August 2002.
"A prediction model for targeting low-cost, high-risk members of managed organizations" (with Henry Dove, Ph. D. and Arthur Robb, Ph. D.). Am J. Mgd. Care, May 2003.
"Population Risk Management: Reducing Costs and Managing Risk in Health Insurance." (with Arthur Robb, Ph. D.) in Arnold Shapiro, ed : "Intelligent Techniques in the Insurance Industry: Theory and Applications." (World Scientific, 2003).